Our process
3 kinds of analyses
The world is VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous), so it's impossible to predict exactly what the future will bring. Human nature—when things get complex—is to solve problems intuitively. Organizations' nature—when things get complex—is to divide the work among different groups, each with their own responsibilities and expectations. We are convinced that—when things get complex—the world is better off with sound insights and thorough scenario analyses.
Analysis 1: Scenario analyses
Einstein showed us that a thought experiment can help clarify the consequences of a hypothesis. But we're not all Einsteins. That's why we use computer models. For example, it can be useful to simulate a scaling-up strategy in advance to see how it can be implemented successfully and efficiently. It can be useful to test an improvement idea beforehand, without immediately overhauling the entire factory. And it can be useful to identify under which circumstances this improvement idea is actually a better idea. Scenario analyses allow you to make the best choice from a range of possibilities.
Analysis 2: Sensitivity analyses
Managers don't need more information. They need information about which variables and decisions have the greatest impact on a system. Simulations can help with this. For example, you can test variables one by one in isolated experiments, learning how each variable affects the rest of the system. This also allows you to verify the robustness of a system's performance in a changing environment. A special form of this analysis is the stress test: at what load does a system stop functioning? Sensitivity analyses allow you to focus on the aspects that are most important.
“Managers receive much more information than they can possibly absorb.” - Russel Ackoff, 1967
