The world is VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous), so it's impossible to predict exactly what the future will bring. Human nature—when things get complex—is to solve problems intuitively. Organizations' nature—when things get complex—is to divide the work among different groups, each with their own responsibilities and expectations. We are convinced that—when things get complex—the world is better off with sound insights and thorough scenario analyses.
Our process
3 kinds of analyses
Analysis 1: Scenario analyses
"This is not a forecast. We are not predicting that a particular future will take place. We are simply presenting a range of alternative scenarios: that is, different pictures of how the twenty-first century may evolve."
- Limits to growth
Einstein showed us that a thought experiment can help clarify the consequences of a hypothesis. But we're not all Einsteins. That's why we use computer models. For example, it can be useful to simulate a scaling-up strategy in advance to see how it can be implemented successfully and efficiently. It can be useful to test an improvement idea beforehand, without immediately overhauling the entire factory. And it can be useful to identify under which circumstances this improvement idea is actually a better idea. Scenario analyses allow you to make the best choice from a range of possibilities.
Analysis 2: Sensitivity analyses
Managers don't need more information. They need information about which variables and decisions have the greatest impact on a system. Simulations can help with this. For example, you can test variables one by one in isolated experiments, learning how each variable affects the rest of the system. This also allows you to verify the robustness of a system's performance in a changing environment. A special form of this analysis is the stress test: at what load does a system stop functioning? Sensitivity analyses allow you to focus on the aspects that are most important.
“Managers receive much more information than they can possibly absorb.” - Russel Ackoff, 1967
Analysis 3: Problem analyses
In the parable of the elephant and the blind men, each blind person, based on their experience and perspective, creates their own version of reality. The elephant's leg feels like a tree, its tail like a rope, its trunk like a snake. Just like these blind people, few people in organizations have a complete overview. When problems arise in the interaction between processes and departments, it's valuable to address them together. One way to do this is by jointly modeling the process with those involved. Creating transparency and sharing the same mental model is often part of the solution.
“Through the exercise of working with our computer model, our mental models have been forced to become more rigorous, more comprehensive, and more clear than they were before.” -Limits to growth